With the possible exception of hotels, has any American industry suffered more from the Pandemic than the restaurant business? In an industry that loses 50 thousand restaurants a year in good times, the predictions for the survival of restaurants and the industry as a whole were dire. Some experts said one third of all eateries would fail. One well known chef-owner put the number of closures in the fine dining segment as high as 75%.
Well, as most Americans get the Covid 19 shot, and cities and towns are open, we’re learning the cuisine carnage is bad and may get worse; but not quite as bad as first predicted. To date, since the Pandemic arrived in early 2020, 90 thousand restaurants have permanently closed. That’s 14 percent of all restaurants, about twice as bad as a typical year, but nowhere near what had been foretold-that we’d have to bring a bag lunch to our jobs most days, wait weeks for a reservation and try and sip soup and chew our filet while wearing a mask.
So what really happened? The vaccine process, dubbed Operation Warp Speed by Team Trump, was just that, the vaccine got here in less than a year and within 15 months of Covid 19’s arrival, a majority of Americans had taken the jab, Texas and Florida completely re opened, most other states loosened restrictions to include limited capacity dining or mask less al fresco dining. Take Out, which accounts for a small percentage of trade at most sit-down restaurants boomed and literally saved the day. Restaurants that might turn their tables 4 times a night, could churn out as much Take Out business as the kitchen could manage–while expenses like linens, dishwashing and front of the house staff disappeared.
Right now, as we head into summer, the food and beverage industry glass is half full. More people dine out in summer, there’s pent up demand after months of sheltering and vaccinations and mask rule relaxations are making people emboldened to go out again. But those pandemic jobless payments, for the moment, are no match for the low wage plus tips formula that have been the industry standard for decades. Here in California, the restaurant at one public golf course has brought in a food truck, unable to staff the restaurant with cooks and wait staff.
Eateries that do manage to staff the business, are dealing with rampant inflation for everything from food costs to the paper packaging needed to box up their takeout fare. Now they’re faced with the tough decision; pass along the cost to customers, or hope they can make up the difference in volume or alcohol sales.
It seems the most experienced restaurant connections did better than the young and quickly successful owners, but some well capitalized chains went belly up, especially those linked to shopping centers, like the Cheesecake Factory. Others like Applebee’s and Logan’s Roadhouse closed a number of stores.
The Pandemic as it’s been said changed everything. The restaurant industry has been critically injured but likely to pull through.